YAOUNDE – In a political climate long dominated by President Paul Biya’s 43-year rule, the 2025 presidential election has delivered one of its biggest surprises: Issa Tchiroma Bakary appears to be outperforming expectations, with some local observers claiming he may already have won the vote.
The election, held on October 12, was widely expected to reaffirm Biya’s grip on power. At 92, he remains one of the world’s oldest heads of state, and analysts typically forecast his re-election given the ruling party’s institutional advantage and control over state media.
Yet, over the course of the campaign and into the opening phase of vote counting, Tchiroma until recently a minister and longtime insider has delivered what many political watchers now call a “remarkable campaign comeback.”
From Insider to Outsider: The Resurgent Tchiroma
Issa Tchiroma’s trajectory is in many ways striking. A former minister and government spokesperson, he resigned from his cabinet position in June 2025 and formally entered the presidential race. That shift was viewed by some as opportunistic; by others, as a necessary break from a system that has grown ossified.
Tchiroma now leads the Front for the National Salvation of Cameroon (FSNC), a modestly sized party he has helmed since 2007. In this campaign, he has embraced a message of generational renewal, economic reform, and an end to rampant patronage. His rallies drew large, energized crowds especially in northern regions where discontent with centralized power remains strong.
Before the election, many pundits considered Tchiroma an underdog, unlikely to break through rural strongholds dominated by Biya loyalists. But over recent weeks, his visibility and momentum have outpaced rivals. Polls had placed him among the top challengers behind Biya, but few had predicted what now may be happening: an upset in the making.
Signs of a Shift “Better Than Expected”
Several signals suggest that Tchiroma’s showing is more than symbolic:
- Vigorous ground mobilization
In many locales, Tchiroma’s campaign organized robust voter drives, particularly among youth and disaffected urban communities. According to locals in Yaoundé, his teams were more visible, more active, and more disciplined than many of the opposition competitors. - Localized victories and reports
Social media posts from polling station agents and observers claim that in places like Garoua, Yaoundé VI (Biyem-Assi) and within parts of the diaspora (notably the UAE), even across Bamenda, the core of the ongoing Anglophone conflict, Tchiroma is either leading or winning outright. One post declared: “Issa Tchiroma won a landslide victory at the Government Bilingual Primary School Biyem Assi polling station.” Another claimed early diaspora tallies favorable to him.
While such reports remain unofficial and unverified by electoral authorities, their volume and consistency have emboldened his supporters and unnerved rival camps.
- Momentum against expectations
Political analysts watching the count have begun to suggest that the narrative of a foregone Biya win may be underestimating Tchiroma’s appeal. One strategist commented publicly that “if this mobilisation is transferred into the ballot box then change is coming.” Others, previously dismissive, now speak of the possibility however slim that Tchiroma might upset the status quo. - Cautious optimism among observers
Even media in the region, while noting the structural advantages still enjoyed by Biya and the ruling CPDM Party, are hedging their forecasts. Some point out that the electoral system (a single-round first-past-the-post rule) means that a strong plurality, not necessarily a majority could win.
Thus, while many still expect Biya to prevail, the narrative has shifted: Tchiroma is no longer a fringe candidate, but the credible spoiler, or even victor in the making.
But Enormous Hurdles Remain
Despite these surprising indicators, there are caveats, and serious risks, to viewing Tchiroma as a guaranteed winner.
- Electoral institutions favor the incumbent
The ruling party’s influence over the national electoral body (Elections Cameroon, ELECAM) and the Constitutional Council remains substantial. Critics argue that electoral fairness is compromised, especially in rural regions and in vote tabulation. - Rural vote strength and patronage networks
Biya’s base remains strongest in rural areas where state resources and local patronage favor the ruling party. Tchiroma’s challenge is to translate urban momentum to broad rural turnout. - No runoff, winner takes all
In Cameroon’s system, the candidate with the most votes wins outright—no second round is held. That means even a narrow plurality could carry the day, but also that minor margins matter intensely. - Verification and result integrity
Until ELECAM or the constitutional court formally publishes certified results, any early claims, pro or con—remain speculative. Tchiroma supporters must hope that reported wins are upheld, not overturned.
If Issa Tchiroma Bakary indeed secures victory, even in part, it would be one of the most dramatic political turnarounds in recent Cameroonian history. It would signal a fracture in Biya’s once-monolithic dominance, and it would awaken possibilities for a more open, contested political future.
As counting proceeds and official tallies begin to emerge over the next several days, all eyes are on ELECAM and the constitutional court. For now, Tchiroma’s performance stands out not just as unusually strong but as potentially decisive. Whether he ultimately wins remains uncertain; but he has shattered expectations, and that alone may reshape political calculations in Yaoundé and beyond.
