Dodoma-When Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan took office in March 2021 following the sudden death of her predecessor John Pombe Magufuli, she was widely hailed as a symbol of renewal , a soft-spoken pragmatist who would open political space, rebuild foreign relations, and heal a polarized nation. Four years later, however, the mood in the country has darkened dramatically. The 2025 general elections, which delivered her a landslide victory of more than 95 percent according to official figures, have triggered one of the deadliest waves of political violence in Tanzania’s modern history.
Opposition parties, human-rights groups, and several international observers have accused the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), of orchestrating widespread intimidation, ballot manipulation, and a brutal post-election crackdown. Unconfirmed but persistent reports indicate that over 7,000 people may have been killed in clashes, security raids, and reprisal attacks since the October polls. The government has dismissed those numbers as “gross exaggerations,” yet it has also barred independent investigators and journalists from visiting the most affected regions , particularly in Pemba, Mwanza, Kigoma, and parts of the mainland opposition strongholds.
From Hope to Hardline
At the start of her presidency, Samia Suluhu Hassan projected a reformist image. She reversed her predecessor’s denialist stance on COVID-19, reopened the country to international media, and met with opposition leader Freeman Mbowe, signaling readiness for dialogue. Donor nations praised her for what appeared to be a “course correction” from Magufuli’s suffocating authoritarianism.
But by mid-2023, the tone of her leadership began to shift. Analysts point to her tight grip on CCM’s internal machinery and a reassertion of party dominance over the state. Opposition rallies were repeatedly banned under the pretext of maintaining order, while independent journalists faced harassment and surveillance. The judiciary, long described as cautious, seemed increasingly aligned with executive preferences.
By the time the 2025 elections approached, most credible challengers had been disqualified on technical grounds. The main opposition alliance, CHADEMA-ACT, accused the National Electoral Commission of bias, and several of its candidates were arrested. Yet, despite these warning signs, the sheer scale of the post-election bloodshed took both citizens and observers by surprise.
The Violence Unfolds
Eyewitness accounts collected by diaspora media outlets and rights organizations describe a grim picture: security forces allegedly firing live ammunition into crowds, night-time raids on suspected opposition sympathizers, and mass detentions in overcrowded facilities. Internet shutdowns and communication blackouts followed, making it nearly impossible to verify casualty figures.
Some local clerics and community leaders have spoken of mass graves near coastal and border towns, while humanitarian agencies report thousands of displaced families seeking refuge in neighboring Kenya and Uganda. The government maintains that “criminal elements and foreign agitators” are responsible for the unrest, portraying its response as a lawful effort to restore stability.
For many Tanzanians, however, the events have shattered the long-held perception of their country as one of East Africa’s most stable democracies.
Samia’s Paradox: Power and Legitimacy
Samia Suluhu Hassan’s ascent was historic , the first female president in Tanzania and one of only a handful of women to lead an African nation. Yet that symbolism now collides with the realities of power consolidation. Her supporters argue that she is simply ensuring continuity and discipline after years of economic turbulence. Critics contend she has abandoned reform in favor of repression, transforming Tanzania into a hybrid authoritarian state cloaked in electoral legitimacy.
At the heart of her challenge lies a paradox: while she commands the loyalty of the CCM’s vast patronage network and much of the military hierarchy, her political legitimacy is eroding both domestically and abroad. Western partners who once applauded her pragmatism are now demanding accountability for human-rights abuses. The African Union and East African Community, typically cautious on such matters, face growing pressure to mediate a post-crisis dialogue.
The Challenges Ahead
- Restoring Credibility and Stability
Samia must confront the widening trust deficit between her administration and the public. Without credible investigations into the killings and assurances of political reform, Tanzania risks long-term instability. - Managing International Pressure
Foreign partners are reconsidering aid and trade ties. A growing chorus within the EU and the US Congress is calling for sanctions against officials implicated in rights violations. Balancing domestic sovereignty with global accountability will test her diplomatic finesse. - Containing Ethnic and Regional Tensions
The violence has exacerbated historical divides between Zanzibar and the mainland, as well as between rural CCM loyalists and urban opposition bases. If unaddressed, these fractures could fuel secessionist or insurgent movements. - Economic Fallout
Tourism, a major revenue earner, has plummeted amid reports of insecurity. Inflation and youth unemployment are rising, undermining her “Tanzania Vision 2030” economic agenda. - Gendered Expectations
As Africa’s first woman to preside over such a severe authoritarian turn, Samia faces a unique scrutiny. Many who once celebrated her leadership now lament what they see as the betrayal of a historic opportunity to model inclusive governance.
A Nation at the Crossroads
Whether Samia Suluhu Hassan can steer Tanzania out of this turmoil depends on her willingness to confront hard truths: that peace built on fear is unsustainable, and that legitimacy cannot be manufactured through state media or manipulated ballots.
If she embraces dialogue, allows independent inquiry, and restores civil liberties, she could yet reclaim the reformist promise that marked her early presidency. But if she continues down the path of repression, Tanzania may join the ranks of entrenched authoritarian states, this time, under a woman who once inspired hope for a new democratic dawn.
