The Philippines, situated at the forefront of China’s expanding influence in Southeast Asia, plays a crucial role as Canada’s key regional partner in upholding international law and the rules-based order. As tensions rise between Manila and Beijing in the South China Sea, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has strengthened ties with Washington and increased the Philippines’ involvement in U.S.-led partnerships to counter China’s assertiveness in the region. The recent finalization of the Canada-Philippines Status of Visiting Forces Agreement (SOVFA) further solidifies the defence pact between the two countries, enhancing military cooperation through joint training and combat exercises.
Despite Marcos Jr.’s popularity in the West, including Canada, he faces domestic political challenges. The president’s failure to address the rising costs of living has led to a decline in public support, with his approval rating dropping from 45 to 30 percent between September 2024 and February 2025. Tensions between Marcos Jr. and the now-impeached vice president, Sara Duterte, have escalated, with both their families vying for key positions in the upcoming May 12 midterm elections.
The midterm elections will be a crucial test of Marcos Jr.’s policies and popularity, setting the stage for the 2028 presidential race. For Sara Duterte, the elections present an opportunity to consolidate support for a potential presidential bid, especially as she faces multiple allegations and an impending impeachment trial. The recent arrest of her father, Rodrigo Duterte, on charges of crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court adds another layer of complexity to the political landscape.
The outcome of the elections will not only shape the future direction of the Philippines’ foreign policy but also impact the country’s alliances with Canada and other allies in countering China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea. Marcos Jr.’s proactive stance against China has garnered public support, with a majority of Filipinos endorsing military measures to strengthen territorial claims in the West Philippine Sea. Anti-China sentiment among voters is expected to influence the election results, with candidates aligned with Marcos Jr.’s firm stance likely to secure seats in the senate.
Amidst the political turbulence in the Philippines, Canada’s commitment to supporting Manila in safeguarding its maritime rights against China’s assertiveness remains steadfast. The finalized SOVFA underscores Ottawa’s dedication to strengthening defence and military cooperation with the Philippines. As Canada closely monitors the results of the midterm elections and navigates the power struggles within Filipino political dynasties, maintaining proactive engagement in supporting the Philippines is essential for promoting stability, mutual trust, and reinforcing Canada’s position as a reliable partner in the region.
In conclusion, the evolving political landscape in the Philippines and the dynamics of regional alliances underscore the importance of strategic partnerships in upholding international law and ensuring stability in Southeast Asia. As Canada continues to support the Philippines in countering China’s growing influence, the outcomes of the upcoming elections will shape the future trajectory of the region and the broader geopolitical landscape.
