Yaoundé – On 12 October 2025, the central African nation of Cameroon held a deeply contested presidential election that has swiftly plunged the country into a full-scale electoral crisis. The turning point came when former minister turned opposition candidate Issa Tchiroma Bakary broke from convention and declared himself winner stoking fears of a violent confrontation ahead of the official declaration by the country’s constitutional council.
Once a loyal ally of 92-year-old incumbent Paul Biya Africa’s longest-serving leader, in power since 1982, Tchiroma’s candidacy injected fresh uncertainty into a political system long regarded as unassailable. His surprise declaration of victory prompted an immediate condemnation from Biya’s camp, which dismissed the move as part of a “diabolical plan” to stir unrest.
In a Facebook video posted from his hometown of Garoua on 14 October, Tchiroma insisted:
“Our victory is clear. It must be respected.”
He urged Biya to “honour the truth of the ballot box”, or risk “plunging the country into turmoil”.
His team embarked on a systematic release of results from key Divisions in the county that jointly constitute over 80% of the electoral vote. His concluded the exercise yesterday evening with a total results that gave him a comfortable lead over Biya: 54.8% vs 31.3%
A Legacy of Dominance Meets a Growing Crack: Paul Biya’s hold over Cameroon has been formidable: after the turn to multi-party politics in 1990, Biya’s regime neutralised credible opposition, in part by overseeing elections in which outcomes were widely regarded as foregone. In 1992, the major challenger John Fru Ndi and his Social Democratic Front (SDF) claimed victory, but Biya was declared winner instead.
In 2018, opposition leader Maurice Kamto came close to upsetting the status quo, only to be jailed and sidelined in subsequent years. His candidacy was been explicitly blocked for the 2025 race, effectively removing Biya’s strongest challenger at the time. Little did they know Issa Tchiroma was going to pose a bigger challenge. The system faced an unexpected rupture after Tchiroma, who until June 2025 served as Minister of Employment and Vocational Training, publicly split with Biya’s government and launched a campaign under the banner of his party, the Front for the National Salvation of Cameroon (FSNC).
Election Day Chaos and the Fallout: Reports from multiple Cameroonian cities indicate the election process was marred by significant irregularities: ballots allegedly relocated, outdated electoral rolls used and attempts at ballot-box stuffing recorded.
In the western city of Dschang, a local party office of Biya’s ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) was torched amid growing public anger.
Meanwhile, in Garoua, Tchiroma supporters established a vigil outside his home, wary of a possible arrest, mirroring tensions already boiling over in the north.
Competing Claims, Looming Violence: Despite Tchiroma proclaiming victory, provisional official results released on 21 October show Biya leading with roughly 53 % of the vote, and Tchiroma at about 35 %.
Yet the authenticity of these figures is fiercely disputed. The electoral body stipulated that only the Constitutional Council, expected to issue final results by 26 October, can lawfully declare a winner.
The scheduled announcement has already turned into a watershed: protests have erupted across cities and at least 20 arrests have been made on charges of insurrection and incitement.
What’s at Stake? For Biya, validation of a new victory would extend his four-decade rule, but under more fraught conditions than ever. For Tchiroma and a frustrated youth-driven generation, facing youth unemployment at an estimated 39 % in some regions the election represents a rare breakthrough.
If the Constitutional Council declares Biya the winner despite widespread claims of fraud Cameroon could face a wave of unrest. Tchiroma’s supporters are already mobilised; the question is whether other elements of the opposition will unify and escalate their demands.
A Fragile Path Forward: Although Jean Afrique reported that Biya may have offered Tchiroma the premiership and immediate electoral reforms, the overture flies in the face of decades of entrenched system.
Whether genuine or tactical, the proposal underscores the regime’s recognition of the danger it faces.
For the moment, Cameroon stands at a precarious juncture: either the election becomes a starting point for meaningful change, or the country will descend into renewed cycles of repression and violence. The world is watching.
