In a dramatic escalation of tensions, Guinea-Bissau’s President Umaro Sissoco Embalo has openly threatened to expel the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) mission, exacerbating an already volatile political crisis in the country. The standoff revolves around disputed elections, with President Embalo’s term in office now at the heart of a bitter struggle with opposition groups and the influential West African bloc.
The crisis began in earnest following the 2020 presidential elections, in which Embalo secured a contested victory. The opposition, which has long challenged his legitimacy, argues that his term is set to expire soon, believing it should have concluded in February 2025. However, the country’s Supreme Court ruled that his presidency lasts until September 4, 2025, thus creating a deeply polarized political climate.
Embalo, a former military officer who assumed office under controversial circumstances, announced that elections, originally slated for February 2025, would be postponed until November 2025. The move has sparked outrage, not just from political opponents but from the international community as well. The opposition has mobilized its forces, with leaders pledging to “paralyze” the country in protest. For them, the postponement is just another sign of the president’s growing authoritarianism, as his government continues to consolidate power at the expense of democratic norms.
ECOWAS, a key mediator in West Africa’s political crises, has historically played an active role in Guinea-Bissau’s efforts to achieve stability. In recent years, the bloc has helped facilitate peace accords and election processes. In response to the latest tensions, ECOWAS sent a delegation to Guinea-Bissau in late February to discuss the electoral process with local stakeholders. However, the mission met with hostility from Embalo’s government. The president made clear that the ECOWAS team’s presence was no longer welcome, accusing it of meddling in the country’s internal affairs.
This bold move by Embalo highlights the deepening rift between Guinea-Bissau and ECOWAS. As the political crisis intensifies, many fear the return of military influence in Guinea-Bissau’s governance. The country, which gained independence from Portugal in 1974, has been plagued by a series of coups and attempted coups, leaving it in a fragile state.
ECOWAS has condemned Embalo’s actions, with some diplomats warning that expelling the mission would lead to even greater isolation for Guinea-Bissau. But for now, the president remains resolute. As tensions rise, both sides appear locked in a dangerous standoff, and the path forward remains unclear.
With the country’s political future hanging in the balance, the international community watches closely as the crisis continues to unfold. The stakes could not be higher for Guinea-Bissau, a country that has long struggled to maintain stability and avoid the deadly cycle of military intervention and political chaos.
