The Surge of Migrants Across the English Channel Under Sir Keir Starmer’s Leadership
In the past 13 months since Sir Keir Starmer took the reins of government, a significant uptick in migrant crossings via small boats through the English Channel has been observed. The numbers reveal a startling trend: 50,716 migrants have arrived, averaging 126 per day. This statistic eclipses the total of 50,637 individuals who crossed the Channel during Rishi Sunak’s entire 20-month premiership, which averages out to about 82 arrivals each day.
This trajectory suggests that, if the current rate persists, the number of Channel crossings under Starmer’s administration will surpass the totals seen during Boris Johnson’s more extended tenure of over three years. Johnson’s time in office coincided with the COVID pandemic, a period during which migration figures were notably low due to lockdown measures both in the UK and across Europe.
Seasonal Influences on Migration Numbers
The Home Office has pointed out an essential factor: Labour took office in the summer, a season known for increased Channel crossings due to favorable weather conditions. The rolling 12-month arrival figures are indeed high, nearing an all-time record, with 45,823 individuals reported in the last year—the highest total since April 2023.
When Rishi Sunak ascended to the premiership at the end of October 2022, the figures were already elevated at 46,870 due to a surge in arrivals during the preceding months under Johnson and Liz Truss. By the time Sunak yielded leadership to Starmer, the number had dropped to 31,578—a reduction of more than a third. Since then, however, the figures have surged by an astonishing 45%.
Weather and Crossing Patterns
While seasonal weather patterns undoubtedly impact migration, analysis from Sky News Data x Forensics indicates that the high volume of arrivals cannot be solely attributed to favorable conditions. Remarkably, more migrants have also attempted crossings even when weather conditions were less than ideal. This underscores a more complex landscape of motives driving these crossings.
This winter has been characterized as unusually mild, with conditions conducive to migration, which some attribute to the record number of arrivals seen so far in 2025. Nonetheless, the ongoing analysis suggests that poor weather does not deter all would-be migrants, challenging assumptions about seasonal behavior in migration trends.
The One-in-One-Out Deal with France
In response to rising numbers, a new "one-in one-out" agreement with France has been implemented, allowing the UK to exchange a migrant who arrived illegally for one who has passed security and eligibility checks. This pilot program is capped at 50 individuals per week.
While the government hopes this initiative will deter unlawful crossings, our data analysis reveals that this measure encompasses less than 5% of the average weekly arrivals and constitutes less than 0.3% of the total net migration to the UK. This indicates that the scale of the challenge remains far larger than current government measures suggest.
The Broader Context of Migration in the UK
As the statistics unfold, the implications are profound not just for government policy but also for the public discourse surrounding immigration. The apparent inability of current strategies to keep pace with inflating numbers prompts critical questions about future approaches to border control and migrant integration.
Sky News’s Data and Forensics team continues to delve into these complexities, employing innovative methods to illuminate the nuances of migration. By merging traditional journalistic inquiry with advanced data analysis, they strive to present a clearer understanding of a multifaceted issue that affects many lives.
This article explores the ongoing dynamics of migration across the English Channel, highlighting the dramatic rise in crossings under Sir Keir Starmer’s government, the influence of seasonal weather, the government’s operational response, and the pivotal role of data analysis in understanding these patterns.
