As Uganda’s longest-serving president prepares to extend his rule into a fifth decade, analysts are divided on whether Kampala’s expanding military footprint across East and Central Africa represents genuine regional leadership or the careful construction of a personal political fortress.
By Richard Olwnyi | Global Echos | May 4, 2026
KAMPALA. When President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni takes the oath of office on May 12, 2026, he will extend a rule that began in 1986, a tenure that has profoundly shaped both Uganda’s domestic politics and its posture across one of the world’s most volatile regions. If he completes the upcoming term, Museveni’s leadership will approach 45 years, placing him among the longest-serving heads of state in the world.
Over that period, Uganda has emerged as a pivotal military actor across East and Central Africa, largely through deployments of the Uganda People’s Defence Force. From counterterrorism operations in Somalia to joint offensives in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kampala’s military footprint has expanded steadily. The central question that expansion raises is one that analysts, diplomats and ordinary Ugandans are asking with increasing urgency: is Uganda genuinely positioning itself as a regional stabiliser, or is its outward activism primarily a mechanism for reinforcing political control at home?
A Security Doctrine Rooted in Intervention
Uganda’s contemporary military activism took meaningful shape in 2007, when Kampala deployed troops under the African Union Mission in Somalia to confront the Al-Shabaab insurgency. That deployment established a template that has since been replicated across the continent.
The UPDF subsequently pursued the Lord’s Resistance Army across the Central African Republic and South Sudan between 2011 and 2017, intervened in South Sudan’s civil war in support of President Salva Kiir in 2013, and contributed to regional security mechanisms during periods of unrest in Burundi. In eastern DRC, Uganda has maintained a recurring and consequential presence, most recently through Operation Shujaa, a joint offensive launched in 2021 targeting the Allied Democratic Forces.
For those who designed and executed these engagements, the logic is straightforward. Ambassador Maj. (Rtd) James William Kinobe, a retired UPDF officer and former Ugandan envoy to the DRC, describes the doctrine in terms of pre-emptive containment. “What we are doing is some sort of immunisation to avoid a disease in the neighbourhood to spill over to our country,” he says. “When there is instability in the neighbourhood it could spread to our country. The army is used to restore peace within the country and in the entire continent.”
It is a compelling argument. Uganda shares borders with six countries, several of which have experienced significant conflict during Museveni’s tenure. The instability that produced the LRA, the ADF and successive crises in South Sudan has not been hypothetical; it has been immediate, lethal and capable of crossing borders with devastating effect.
Stabiliser or Strategic Self-Preservation?
Yet this outward-facing posture is not universally interpreted as altruistic. Political historian Dr. John Paul Kasujja argues that Uganda’s regional activism is deeply and inseparably intertwined with regime security, and that the two cannot be cleanly distinguished.
“Having postured in their 2026 campaign slogan that in the next five-year term they are going to protect the gains means Museveni is going to continue and tighten up to consolidate on those initiatives he spearheaded over the years,” Kasujja says.
He roots this analysis in Uganda’s own political history. Museveni came to power in 1986 through a bush war that used neighbouring territory as a base of operations. He has governed with that lesson close at hand ever since. “Museveni has witnessed previous governments in Uganda fall after rivals use bases in neighbouring countries; he does not want to see a repeat of the same,” Kasujja explains.
The implication is pointed: “Museveni is rather securing long-term political influence by posturing as if he is working for the common good, creating strong ties with neighbours to close out possibilities of his rivals being accommodated there.”
It is an argument that recent events have sharpened. The treatment of opposition figures including Kizza Besigye and Robert Kyagulanyi, known as Bobi Wine, has intensified debate about the boundary between security policy and political suppression. Besigye, who has challenged Museveni in multiple elections, was controversially detained in Nairobi in late 2024 and subsequently held in Uganda under military custody, an episode that drew sharp international criticism and renewed questions about whether regional diplomatic relationships are being used to neutralise domestic opposition.
The International Dimension
Uganda’s military role has generated strategic partnerships that extend well beyond the continent. The United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and Israel have all engaged Kampala as a counterterrorism and regional security partner, relationships that carry both financial and political weight.
Dr. Daniel Walyemera sees these relationships as central to what Museveni’s next term will look like in practice. “All the heads of state of the East African Community came to power and found President Museveni in charge. They are all looking up to him to help them have a grip on power militarily but also to tap on his experience,” he says.
Walyemera argues that Uganda’s relevance to global powers is directly tied to its security capabilities and its willingness to deploy them. “Global actors know that if they want to fix anything in the continent where they have interest, President Museveni is the man for such assignment.”
He also suggests that formalising these alliances serves a dual purpose, cementing earlier ties while simultaneously preventing political rivals from cultivating the same international relationships for their own ends. In other words, the partnerships that confer legitimacy on Uganda’s regional role may simultaneously function as diplomatic insulation for the government at home.
Richard Olwnyi is a Global Echos East Africa Correspondence
