Analysis: Likely Iran Will Lash Out to Divide and Survive – With UK Potentially in Firing Line
By Dominic Waghorn, International Affairs Editor
The geopolitical landscape surrounding Iran has become increasingly volatile, especially following recent escalations involving the United States. With President Donald Trump opting to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, the stakes have never been higher. The question now is: what happens next, and how severe could the repercussions be?
The Dilemma for Iran
President Trump has effectively placed Iran in a precarious position, offering a stark choice: negotiate or face devastating escalation. The next move lies with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, who has dedicated his life to countering American influence in the region. Expecting him to engage in negotiations under the threat of military action is a tall order. More likely, Khamenei will opt for retaliation, at least in the short term.
Calculating Retaliation
Khamenei’s primary objective will be to deter further U.S. attacks. He may calculate that targeting American lives could serve as a powerful deterrent. This strategy could involve direct assaults on U.S. military bases scattered throughout the Middle East, including locations in Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. Alternatively, Iran could leverage its network of proxies, such as Iran-backed militias in Iraq or the Houthis in Yemen, to carry out attacks.
Threats to Global Stability
Iran’s potential to disrupt shipping and the oil industry in the Persian Gulf poses a significant threat to global economic stability. Should the Gulf become a war zone, the ramifications could be dire, leading to skyrocketing oil prices and a ripple effect on economies worldwide. However, any aggressive actions from Iran would likely provoke a massive retaliatory response from the U.S., which has already deployed substantial military assets to the region, including three aircraft carrier groups and submarines armed with cruise missiles.
Asymmetric Warfare
Given the overwhelming military presence of the U.S., Iran may resort to asymmetric warfare tactics, which they have historically excelled at. This could include cyberattacks, sabotage, or even terrorist activities in countries like the UK. The possibility of Iranian terrorist attacks on British soil cannot be dismissed, as the UK could find itself inadvertently caught in the crossfire of this escalating conflict.
The Broader Geopolitical Landscape
While Iran has strategic partnerships with countries like Russia and China, these nations may choose to remain on the sidelines. Russia’s strategic partnership with Iran does not obligate it to intervene militarily, and China, despite its close ties with Iran, is likely to adopt a cautious approach, observing the situation rather than engaging directly.
Competing Priorities
The Iranian leadership faces a dual challenge: ensuring its survival while simultaneously pursuing its nuclear ambitions. The regime is likely to absorb initial blows and strategize for the long term, aiming to develop nuclear capabilities that could deter future attacks. Conversely, Israel remains steadfast in its commitment to preventing Iran from achieving nuclear weapons capability, creating a tense standoff.
The Long Game
One potential avenue for the U.S. and its allies could be regime change in Iran. However, the Iranian leadership has shown remarkable resilience in the face of mounting challenges. Instead, the focus may shift to a prolonged period of monitoring and managing threats posed by Iran. This could involve keeping a close watch on Iran’s missile development, regional meddling, and nuclear projects, with military action taken as necessary.
Implications for the Future
The situation is fraught with uncertainty. Iran’s leadership is likely to lash out in response to perceived threats, but the consequences of such actions could be far-reaching. The future holds significant risks not only for Israel but also for the U.S. and its allies, as the geopolitical chess game continues to unfold.
